Inflation and your savings: what you really lose

According to Statistics Poland (GUS), prices in September 2026 were 4.1% higher than a year earlier. At that pace, cash that earns no interest loses 3.9% of its purchasing power a year. PLN 1,000 from January 2010 is worth PLN 1,796.59 at September 2026 prices, and cash put aside in January 2020 has lost 34.2% of purchasing power since. A deposit paying the NBP reference rate of 3.75% (the NBP is Poland's central bank) earns 3.04% a year after the 19% tax on interest, so in real terms it loses 1.02% a year.

What is PLN 1,000 from years ago worth today?

Inflation is a rise in the general level of prices: when prices go up, the same money buys less. In Poland it is measured by GUS, Statistics Poland, with the consumer price index (CPI). Every month GUS checks the prices of a basket of goods and services, from food and fuel to housing and transport, and publishes how much they changed on the previous month and on the same month a year earlier. From these figures our inflation calculator builds a monthly price level and converts amounts between any two months since 1991.

The table converts PLN 1,000 from January of several years into September 2026 prices, the latest month with GUS data:

"Worth" is the amount you needed in September 2026 to buy the same things as back then. The last column looks at it from the other side: PLN 1,000 in September 2026 bought what the amount shown bought in January of that year.

From January 2020 to September 2026, prices rose by 52.0% in total. Cash kept since then in a wallet or a current account that pays no interest has lost 34.2% of its purchasing power. The loss of purchasing power is smaller than the rise in prices, because it is measured against the new, higher prices. When prices rise by 50%, the same money buys 1 ÷ 1.5, two thirds of what it did before. So you lose a third, not half.

What is inflation now, and what was it before?

According to GUS, prices in September 2026 were 4.1% higher than a year earlier. That is above the NBP's inflation target of 2.5% ± 1 percentage point. Year-on-year (y/y) inflation compares prices with the same month a year earlier, so one figure sums up how prices changed over twelve months. The inflation target and the interest rates of Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP), Poland's central bank, are set by its Monetary Policy Council (Rada Polityki Pieniężnej, RPP), which moves the rates to keep inflation close to the target.

The highest inflation since January 2000 was 18.4% year on year, in February 2023. The lowest was −1.6%, in February 2015: prices were lower than a year earlier, which is deflation. Since January 2000 that has happened in 28 months.

Over 2010–2025, prices rose by 3.5% a year on average (by GUS's annual average figures). The average hides big differences between years, as the chart further down shows. So when you plan savings for many years, try several inflation rates in the calculators, not just the NBP target.

How do you work out a real return?

The nominal return is what you see on your statement: the interest on a deposit or the growth of an investment. The real return tells you how much more that money can buy. It is worked out like this:

real return = (1 + after-tax return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1

Use the return after tax, because that is what you actually get. On interest from deposits, savings accounts and bonds, the bank or another payer withholds 19% tax, known as podatek Belki (the Belka tax). The exceptions, such as the IKE and IKZE retirement accounts (Indywidualne Konto Emerytalne and Indywidualne Konto Zabezpieczenia Emerytalnego), are covered in the guide "The Belka tax — how it works and how to avoid it legally".

An example: PLN 10,000 in a 12-month deposit paying today's NBP reference rate, 3.75%. The interest is PLN 375.00, the tax PLN 71.25, so you keep PLN 303.75: 3.04% a year. With inflation at 4.1%, the real return is:

(1 + 3.04%) ÷ (1 + 4.1%) − 1 ≈ −1.02%

After a year you have PLN 10,303.75, but it buys what PLN 9,897.93 bought a year earlier. In real terms you lose 1.02% a year.

People often use a shortcut and subtract inflation from the after-tax return: 3.04% − 4.1% ≈ −1.06%. With low inflation that is good enough, but with high inflation the shortcut can be off by a percentage point, or even more.

The tax is charged on the whole interest, including the part that only makes up for rising prices. So when prices are rising, a deposit paying exactly the inflation rate loses in real terms.

Does a deposit keep up with inflation?

A deposit protects your money from inflation only if, after tax, it pays at least as much as prices rise. The Belka tax leaves you 81% of the interest, so the break-even rate is:

deposit rate ≥ inflation ÷ 0.81

With inflation at 4.1%, that is 4.1% ÷ 0.81 ≈ 5.062%, so a deposit needs a rate of at least 5.07%. The NBP reference rate is 3.75%, 1.32 percentage points lower, so a deposit paying that rate does not keep up with inflation today.

Deposit rates depend largely on the NBP's interest rates. The most important of them is the reference rate: higher rates are meant to slow down price rises, and banks' loan and deposit rates usually follow the reference rate. The chart compares the reference rate with inflation in every month since January 2000.

• Inflation y/y (GUS)
• NBP reference rate

Chart data

Month	Inflation y/y (GUS)	NBP reference rate (end of month)
September 2026	4.1%	3.75%
August 2026	3.4%	3.75%
July 2026	3.0%	3.75%
June 2026	2.5%	3.75%
May 2026	3.1%	3.75%
April 2026	3.2%	3.75%
March 2026	3.0%	3.75%
February 2026	2.1%	4.00%
January 2026	2.1%	4.00%
December 2025	2.4%	4.00%
November 2025	2.5%	4.25%
October 2025	2.8%	4.50%
September 2025	2.9%	4.75%
August 2025	2.9%	5.00%
July 2025	3.1%	5.00%
June 2025	4.1%	5.25%
May 2025	4.0%	5.25%
April 2025	4.3%	5.75%
March 2025	4.9%	5.75%
February 2025	4.9%	5.75%
January 2025	4.9%	5.75%
December 2024	4.7%	5.75%
November 2024	4.7%	5.75%
October 2024	5.0%	5.75%
September 2024	4.9%	5.75%
August 2024	4.3%	5.75%
July 2024	4.2%	5.75%
June 2024	2.6%	5.75%
May 2024	2.5%	5.75%
April 2024	2.4%	5.75%
March 2024	2.0%	5.75%
February 2024	2.8%	5.75%
January 2024	3.7%	5.75%
December 2023	6.2%	5.75%
November 2023	6.6%	5.75%
October 2023	6.6%	5.75%
September 2023	8.2%	6.00%
August 2023	10.1%	6.75%
July 2023	10.8%	6.75%
June 2023	11.5%	6.75%
May 2023	13.0%	6.75%
April 2023	14.7%	6.75%
March 2023	16.1%	6.75%
February 2023	18.4%	6.75%
January 2023	16.6%	6.75%
December 2022	16.6%	6.75%
November 2022	17.5%	6.75%
October 2022	17.9%	6.75%
September 2022	17.2%	6.75%
August 2022	16.1%	6.50%
July 2022	15.6%	6.50%
June 2022	15.5%	6.00%
May 2022	13.9%	5.25%
April 2022	12.4%	4.50%
March 2022	11.0%	3.50%
February 2022	8.5%	2.75%
January 2022	9.4%	2.25%
December 2021	8.6%	1.75%
November 2021	7.8%	1.25%
October 2021	6.8%	0.50%
September 2021	5.9%	0.10%
August 2021	5.5%	0.10%
July 2021	5.0%	0.10%
June 2021	4.4%	0.10%
May 2021	4.7%	0.10%
April 2021	4.3%	0.10%
March 2021	3.2%	0.10%
February 2021	2.4%	0.10%
January 2021	2.6%	0.10%
December 2020	2.4%	0.10%
November 2020	3.0%	0.10%
October 2020	3.1%	0.10%
September 2020	3.2%	0.10%
August 2020	2.9%	0.10%
July 2020	3.0%	0.10%
June 2020	3.3%	0.10%
May 2020	2.9%	0.10%
April 2020	3.4%	0.50%
March 2020	4.6%	1.00%
February 2020	4.7%	1.50%
January 2020	4.3%	1.50%
December 2019	3.4%	1.50%
November 2019	2.6%	1.50%
October 2019	2.5%	1.50%
September 2019	2.6%	1.50%
August 2019	2.9%	1.50%
July 2019	2.9%	1.50%
June 2019	2.6%	1.50%
May 2019	2.4%	1.50%
April 2019	2.2%	1.50%
March 2019	1.7%	1.50%
February 2019	1.2%	1.50%
January 2019	0.7%	1.50%
December 2018	1.1%	1.50%
November 2018	1.3%	1.50%
October 2018	1.8%	1.50%
September 2018	1.9%	1.50%
August 2018	2.0%	1.50%
July 2018	2.0%	1.50%
June 2018	2.0%	1.50%
May 2018	1.7%	1.50%
April 2018	1.6%	1.50%
March 2018	1.3%	1.50%
February 2018	1.4%	1.50%
January 2018	1.9%	1.50%
December 2017	2.1%	1.50%
November 2017	2.5%	1.50%
October 2017	2.1%	1.50%
September 2017	2.2%	1.50%
August 2017	1.8%	1.50%
July 2017	1.7%	1.50%
June 2017	1.5%	1.50%
May 2017	1.9%	1.50%
April 2017	2.0%	1.50%
March 2017	2.0%	1.50%
February 2017	2.2%	1.50%
January 2017	1.7%	1.50%
December 2016	0.8%	1.50%
November 2016	0.0%	1.50%
October 2016	−0.2%	1.50%
September 2016	−0.5%	1.50%
August 2016	−0.8%	1.50%
July 2016	−0.9%	1.50%
June 2016	−0.8%	1.50%
May 2016	−0.9%	1.50%
April 2016	−1.1%	1.50%
March 2016	−0.9%	1.50%
February 2016	−0.8%	1.50%
January 2016	−0.9%	1.50%
December 2015	−0.5%	1.50%
November 2015	−0.6%	1.50%
October 2015	−0.7%	1.50%
September 2015	−0.8%	1.50%
August 2015	−0.6%	1.50%
July 2015	−0.7%	1.50%
June 2015	−0.8%	1.50%
May 2015	−0.9%	1.50%
April 2015	−1.1%	1.50%
March 2015	−1.5%	1.50%
February 2015	−1.6%	2.00%
January 2015	−1.4%	2.00%
December 2014	−1.0%	2.00%
November 2014	−0.6%	2.00%
October 2014	−0.6%	2.00%
September 2014	−0.3%	2.50%
August 2014	−0.3%	2.50%
July 2014	−0.2%	2.50%
June 2014	0.3%	2.50%
May 2014	0.2%	2.50%
April 2014	0.3%	2.50%
March 2014	0.7%	2.50%
February 2014	0.7%	2.50%
January 2014	0.5%	2.50%
December 2013	0.7%	2.50%
November 2013	0.6%	2.50%
October 2013	0.8%	2.50%
September 2013	1.0%	2.50%
August 2013	1.1%	2.50%
July 2013	1.1%	2.50%
June 2013	0.2%	2.75%
May 2013	0.5%	3.00%
April 2013	0.8%	3.25%
March 2013	1.0%	3.25%
February 2013	1.3%	3.75%
January 2013	1.7%	4.00%
December 2012	2.4%	4.25%
November 2012	2.8%	4.50%
October 2012	3.4%	4.75%
September 2012	3.8%	4.75%
August 2012	3.8%	4.75%
July 2012	4.0%	4.75%
June 2012	4.3%	4.75%
May 2012	3.6%	4.75%
April 2012	4.0%	4.50%
March 2012	3.9%	4.50%
February 2012	4.3%	4.50%
January 2012	4.1%	4.50%
December 2011	4.6%	4.50%
November 2011	4.8%	4.50%
October 2011	4.3%	4.50%
September 2011	3.9%	4.50%
August 2011	4.3%	4.50%
July 2011	4.1%	4.50%
June 2011	4.2%	4.50%
May 2011	5.0%	4.25%
April 2011	4.5%	4.00%
March 2011	4.3%	3.75%
February 2011	3.6%	3.75%
January 2011	3.6%	3.75%
December 2010	3.1%	3.50%
November 2010	2.7%	3.50%
October 2010	2.8%	3.50%
September 2010	2.5%	3.50%
August 2010	2.0%	3.50%
July 2010	2.0%	3.50%
June 2010	2.3%	3.50%
May 2010	2.2%	3.50%
April 2010	2.4%	3.50%
March 2010	2.6%	3.50%
February 2010	2.9%	3.50%
January 2010	3.5%	3.50%
December 2009	3.5%	3.50%
November 2009	3.3%	3.50%
October 2009	3.1%	3.50%
September 2009	3.4%	3.50%
August 2009	3.7%	3.50%
July 2009	3.6%	3.50%
June 2009	3.5%	3.50%
May 2009	3.6%	3.75%
April 2009	4.0%	3.75%
March 2009	3.6%	3.75%
February 2009	3.3%	4.00%
January 2009	2.8%	4.25%
December 2008	3.3%	5.00%
November 2008	3.7%	5.75%
October 2008	4.2%	6.00%
September 2008	4.5%	6.00%
August 2008	4.8%	6.00%
July 2008	4.8%	6.00%
June 2008	4.6%	6.00%
May 2008	4.4%	5.75%
April 2008	4.0%	5.75%
March 2008	4.1%	5.75%
February 2008	4.2%	5.50%
January 2008	4.0%	5.25%
December 2007	4.0%	5.00%
November 2007	3.6%	5.00%
October 2007	3.0%	4.75%
September 2007	2.3%	4.75%
August 2007	1.5%	4.75%
July 2007	2.3%	4.50%
June 2007	2.6%	4.50%
May 2007	2.3%	4.25%
April 2007	2.3%	4.25%
March 2007	2.5%	4.00%
February 2007	1.9%	4.00%
January 2007	1.6%	4.00%
December 2006	1.4%	4.00%
November 2006	1.4%	4.00%
October 2006	1.2%	4.00%
September 2006	1.6%	4.00%
August 2006	1.6%	4.00%
July 2006	1.1%	4.00%
June 2006	0.8%	4.00%
May 2006	0.9%	4.00%
April 2006	0.7%	4.00%
March 2006	0.4%	4.00%
February 2006	0.7%	4.25%
January 2006	0.6%	4.50%
December 2005	0.7%	4.50%
November 2005	1.0%	4.50%
October 2005	1.6%	4.50%
September 2005	1.8%	4.50%
August 2005	1.6%	4.75%
July 2005	1.3%	4.75%
June 2005	1.4%	5.00%
May 2005	2.5%	5.50%
April 2005	3.0%	5.50%
March 2005	3.4%	6.00%
February 2005	3.6%	6.50%
January 2005	3.7%	6.50%
December 2004	4.4%	6.50%
November 2004	4.5%	6.50%
October 2004	4.5%	6.50%
September 2004	4.4%	6.50%
August 2004	4.6%	6.50%
July 2004	4.6%	6.00%
June 2004	4.4%	5.25%
May 2004	3.4%	5.25%
April 2004	2.2%	5.25%
March 2004	1.7%	5.25%
February 2004	1.6%	5.25%
January 2004	1.6%	5.25%
December 2003	1.7%	5.25%
November 2003	1.6%	5.25%
October 2003	1.3%	5.25%
September 2003	0.9%	5.25%
August 2003	0.7%	5.25%
July 2003	0.8%	5.25%
June 2003	0.8%	5.25%
May 2003	0.4%	5.50%
April 2003	0.3%	5.75%
March 2003	0.6%	6.00%
February 2003	0.5%	6.25%
January 2003	0.5%	6.50%
December 2002	0.8%	6.75%
November 2002	0.9%	6.75%
October 2002	1.1%	7.00%
September 2002	1.3%	7.50%
August 2002	1.2%	8.00%
July 2002	1.3%	8.50%
June 2002	1.6%	8.50%
May 2002	1.9%	9.00%
April 2002	3.0%	9.50%
March 2002	3.3%	10.00%
February 2002	3.5%	10.00%
January 2002	3.4%	10.00%
December 2001	3.6%	11.50%
November 2001	3.6%	11.50%
October 2001	4.0%	13.00%
September 2001	4.3%	14.50%
August 2001	5.1%	14.50%
July 2001	5.2%	15.50%
June 2001	6.2%	15.50%
May 2001	6.9%	17.00%
April 2001	6.6%	17.00%
March 2001	6.2%	17.00%
February 2001	6.6%	19.00%
January 2001	7.4%	19.00%
December 2000	8.5%	19.00%
November 2000	9.3%	19.00%
October 2000	9.9%	19.00%
September 2000	10.3%	19.00%
August 2000	10.7%	19.00%
July 2000	11.6%	17.50%
June 2000	10.2%	17.50%
May 2000	10.0%	17.50%
April 2000	9.8%	17.50%
March 2000	10.3%	17.50%
February 2000	10.4%	17.50%
January 2000	10.1%	16.50%

From January 2000 to September 2026, the reference rate was below inflation in 86 of 321 months, 27% of the time. The longest stretch lasted 4 years and 10 months, from March 2019 to December 2023. The current reference rate (3.75% since March 5, 2026) is 0.35 percentage points below the latest inflation figure (4.1%).

Even that picture is too rosy for savers. Deposits can pay less than the reference rate, and you pay tax on the interest. When inflation jumps, interest rates often chase it with a delay, while a deposit opened earlier usually keeps its rate until the end of its term.

What protects savings from inflation?

The table shows what a year of saving gives at today's inflation (4.1%): the gross rate, the rate after the 19% Belka tax and the real return after inflation.

For COI and EDO we assume inflation stays at today's level. TOS and EDO add the interest to the bond every year and the tax is withheld only at redemption, so over several years they do slightly better than the table shows.

Cash loses exactly what inflation takes. A deposit and TOS bonds have a rate fixed in advance, so they beat inflation only if prices rise more slowly than their after-tax rate.

COI and EDO bonds are indexed to inflation. In the first year they pay a fixed rate (4.75% for COI and 5.35% for EDO in the October 2026 offer), and from the second year inflation plus a fixed margin: 1.5 percentage points for COI and 2 percentage points for EDO. The inflation used is the annual GUS figure published in the month before the interest year starts, and a negative figure counts as zero.

The Belka tax, however, is charged on the whole interest, including the part that only makes up for inflation. So a bond whose interest is taxed every year earns in real terms only while inflation stays at or below margin × 0.81 ÷ 0.19 — about 6.39% for COI, with its margin of 1.5 percentage points. For EDO the same yearly sum, as in the table, gives 2 × 0.81 ÷ 0.19 ≈ 8.53%, but EDO is taxed only once, at redemption, so it does better than that. At today's inflation (4.1%), COI from its second year earns about 0.42% a year in real terms after tax, and EDO, on the same yearly basis, earns about 0.81% a year in real terms.

The bonds calculator works EDO out exactly, with the interest capitalised and the tax withheld at redemption. PLN 10,000 in EDO for 10 years, with inflation staying at 4.1%, comes to PLN 16,440.00 after tax: PLN 11,000.05 in today's money. In real terms you gain PLN 1,000.05. The same sum kept in cash would be worth PLN 6,691.03 in real terms.

You can avoid the Belka tax in an IKE, an individual retirement account that can also hold treasury bonds. You pay no Belka tax there if you withdraw after turning 60 and meet the act's conditions. The same scenario without the tax comes to PLN 17,951.00, or PLN 12,011.06 in real terms.

Shares, bought for example through index funds or ETFs, are stakes in companies rather than a sum with a fixed rate, so they can grow faster than prices — but they come with no guarantee. In a single year they can fall sharply, and recovering the losses can take years, so they suit money you are putting away for a long time. The compound interest calculator shows what regular investing could give after tax and inflation under different assumptions.

For detailed comparisons, see the guides "EDO or COI? Which Polish treasury bonds to choose" and "Treasury bonds or a bank deposit — which pays more?".

Why can your own inflation differ from the GUS figure?

The GUS index is the average price change of a basket in which each category is weighted by how much an average household spends on it. GUS updates the weights every year. Your basket is different, though. If more of your budget goes on food, energy or rent, and those prices rise faster than the rest, your inflation is higher than the GUS figure. If you spend a lot on things that are getting cheaper, it can be lower.

How prices feel can mislead you too. You notice the prices of things you buy every day, like bread or fuel, straight away, and those you buy rarely hardly at all. Price rises are also easier to remember than price cuts.

You can estimate your own inflation: compare what the things you buy regularly cost a year ago with what they cost today. If the prices of what you buy rise faster than the GUS index, enter a higher inflation rate in the deposit and bonds calculators. Both let you set your own, so you can see whether your savings keep up with your prices, not just the average.